Financial freedom calculator — v1, open beta, methodology published

Drag the sliders. Figures are in today's dollars (inflation-adjusted) and reflect the assumptions in "How we calculated this" below — not a guarantee.

Lean FIRE

Coast FIRE

Barista FIRE

Fat FIRE

Custom

Current age 28

Used as the starting point for every projection below.

Monthly savings $800

What you actually put toward savings and investing each month, on top of what's already saved.

Target annual spending in retirement $40,000

What you expect to actually spend per year once retired, in today's dollars. Type an exact figure if the slider's too coarse.

Current invested savings $15,000

Everything you've already got invested or saved toward this goal — cash, brokerage, retirement accounts. Type an exact figure if the slider's too coarse.

Current high-interest debt (optional) $0

Credit cards, personal loans — assumed at a representative 18% APR. Your savings pay this off first before investing starts.

Stock allocation 80%

Higher stock allocation means higher expected growth but a bumpier ride — drives the return used in the Monte Carlo simulation.

Monthly rental income, net of expenses (optional) $0

Your best estimate of net rental profit per month — after mortgage interest, property expenses, and depreciation, but before income tax. Pick your approximate federal marginal bracket below; we don't model state tax or exact depreciation schedules.

Assumed federal marginal tax rate on that rental income

Rental profit is taxed as ordinary income at your marginal federal bracket (plus state tax, not modeled here). Pick whichever is closest to your bracket including this extra income.

Safe withdrawal rate (used for your target number)

How much of your portfolio you draw down each year in retirement. Lower % is more conservative, higher % is more aggressive.

Expected real investment returns

Real means after inflation, so these are in today's dollars. Historical reflects long-run US market history and is what most FIRE calculators assume — but it sits at the optimistic end of what forecasters currently expect. Cautious tests whether your plan still works if the next thirty years are worse than the last hundred. If your date moves a lot between these, your plan depends heavily on markets cooperating.

Years to financial freedom —

Includes the balances you should hit each year, so you can check yourself against it later. Generated in your browser — nothing is uploaded.

Your FIRE number (range) —

30-year retirement success rate —

Median path Optimistic / pessimistic band Target number

How we calculated this

This model simulates the accumulation phase using real (inflation-adjusted) returns based on your stock/bond mix, and runs 400 simulated markets (Monte Carlo, annual steps, normally distributed returns) to show a realistic range of outcomes instead of one straight line. All assumptions are published in the methodology below.

Return assumptions are yours to choose. The default (7% real equities, 2.5% real bonds) reflects long-run US market history and is what most FIRE calculators assume. We should be straight that it sits at the optimistic end of what forecasters currently expect — long-run US returns were among the best of any market in the last century, and a good deal of that came from valuations rising rather than earnings growing. We offer moderate (6% / 2%) and cautious (5% / 1.5%) scenarios so you can see how much of your plan rests on markets repeating that performance. If your date shifts by many years between the historical and cautious settings, that gap is your real exposure to market risk — and it is worth knowing before you build a life around the optimistic number.

Safe withdrawal rate range (3.9%–5.25%): 3.9% reflects Morningstar's more conservative 2026 estimate; 5.25% reflects William Bengen's own updated, more optimistic figure. Both are based on US equity and bond market history. For non-US portfolios or alternative asset allocations, the sustainable rate may differ. Your selected rate sets the target number used for the timeline; the range shown is the honest spread between current expert estimates.
30-year retirement success rate: a separate 400-simulation Monte Carlo test of your target number being drawn down at your chosen spending level over a 30-year retirement, to illustrate sequence-of-returns risk — a bad market in your first few retirement years is far more dangerous than the same drop later on.
Debt payoff: if you enter a debt balance, we assume a representative 18% APR and route your monthly savings to payoff first; investing (and the Monte Carlo chart) begins once you're debt-free.
Barista FIRE: assumes $18,000/year of part-time income offsets your spending target, so your portfolio only needs to cover the rest.
Rental income: if entered, we treat it as net profit already after property expenses (mortgage interest, repairs, depreciation), apply your selected federal marginal tax rate (we don't model state tax or exact depreciation schedules), and add the after-tax amount to your monthly investable savings — both for your timeline and for the debt payoff calculation.
Coast FIRE: shows how much you'd need invested today for growth alone to reach your number by age 65, with no further contributions.
This is a simplified, illustrative model — not personalized financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Real plans should account for your full financial picture.